Executive Summary & Business Problem
This analysis explores a dataset of ~100,000 orders from a major Brazilian e-commerce platform between 2016 and 2018. The primary objective was to uncover actionable insights into sales trends, logistical efficiency, and regional performance to provide data-driven recommendations that enhance customer experience and optimize operations.
Time Range Analyzed
2 Years
(Sept 2016 - Oct 2018)
Total Distinct Cities
4,119
Across 27 States
Y-o-Y Growth (Jan-Aug)
137%
(2017 vs 2018)
Year-over-Year Growth
Key Insight:
The total value of orders skyrocketed by 137% between 2017 and 2018 for the same period (January to August). This indicates exponential growth in both customer adoption and spending, signaling a rapidly expanding business.
Recommendation:
Given this explosive growth, the business must proactively scale its workforce, logistics infrastructure, and customer support for the upcoming year to maintain service quality and avoid operational bottlenecks.
Sales Trends & Seasonality
Monthly Order Volume (2016-2018)
Orders by Time of Day
Key Insights:
- Strong Growth Trend: Order volume grew consistently from early 2017, peaking in November 2017. Sales remained strong but stagnant through mid-2018 before a significant dip.
- Festive Season Peaks: The highest sales volumes were recorded in November, likely driven by holiday shopping and Black Friday. This is the most critical sales period.
- Afternoon Rush: The majority of orders are placed in the afternoon (1 PM - 6 PM), followed closely by night (7 PM - 11 PM). Dawn (12 AM - 6 AM) is the quietest period.
Recommendations:
- Increase staffing and inventory from October to prepare for the November peak season demand.
- Launch "flash sale" marketing campaigns between 2 PM and 5 PM to capitalize on the peak afternoon shopping window.
- Analyze the cause of the late-2018 sales dip; was it market saturation, increased competition, or an internal issue?
Regional Performance
Total Customers by State
Statewise M/M Orders
Key Insights:
- Market Concentration: The customer base is heavily concentrated in São Paulo (SP), which has over 3x more customers than the next largest state, Rio de Janeiro (RJ).
- Consistent Leadership: The month-on-month view confirms that SP consistently dominates order volume throughout the year, with other top states following a similar seasonal pattern at a smaller scale.
- Untapped Potential: Many states, particularly in the North (e.g., RR, AP, AM), have a very small customer base, indicating significant room for market expansion.
Recommendations:
- Focus expansion efforts and marketing campaigns on the promising secondary markets of RJ and MG to diversify revenue streams.
- Launch targeted ad campaigns and offer shipping discounts in states with low customer counts to stimulate growth and brand awareness.
- Create regional marketing campaigns for the top 5 states that acknowledge local holidays or events to drive engagement.
Economic Impact
Total Order Value by State
Average Order Value by State
Total Freight Value by State
Average Freight Value by State
Key Insights:
- Value Follows Volume: Total order and freight values are highest in states with the most customers (SP, RJ, MG), as expected.
- High Freight in Remote States: Average freight value is significantly higher in remote northern states like Roraima (RR) and Paraíba (PB), likely acting as a major deterrent to potential customers.
- High Value Orders in Remote Areas: Interestingly, states with high freight costs (e.g., PB, AC) also have some of the highest average order values, suggesting that customers in these areas may be making larger, less frequent purchases to justify the shipping cost.
Recommendations:
- Explore establishing fulfillment centers or logistics hubs in central or northern Brazil to reduce freight costs and delivery times to remote states.
- Offer "bulk purchase" discounts or free shipping thresholds specifically for high-freight states to encourage larger order values.
- Negotiate with carriers for better rates in high-volume corridors like SP and RJ to further improve profitability.
Payment Behavior
Orders by Payment Type
Orders by Payment Installments
Key Insights:
- Credit Card Dominance: Credit cards are the overwhelming payment method of choice, accounting for ~74% of all transactions.
- Single Payment Preference: The vast majority of customers prefer to pay in a single installment, suggesting that many purchases are not high-value enough to require financing.
- Underutilization of Other Methods: Digital wallets (UPI) and debit cards are significantly underutilized compared to credit cards.
Recommendations:
- Ensure a seamless and secure credit card payment process, as it is the primary driver of sales.
- Run promotional campaigns offering small discounts or rewards for using UPI or debit cards to encourage adoption and potentially reduce transaction fees.
- For higher-priced items, prominently display installment options to make large purchases more accessible.
Logistics Performance
States with Longest vs. Fastest Avg. Delivery Time
Top 5 States - Delivery Faster than Estimated
Key Insights:
- Geographic Disparity: There is a vast difference in delivery times across Brazil. States like Roraima (RR) experience average delivery times of over 29 days, while São Paulo (SP) averages under 9 days.
- Overly Cautious Estimates: Many orders, especially in remote states like Acre (AC) and Rondônia (RO), are delivered significantly earlier than their estimated dates (avg. 19-20 days early). This suggests the estimation algorithm is inaccurate.
- Efficiency Correlates with Success: The states with the fastest delivery times (SP, PR, MG) are also the states with the highest customer concentration and order volume.
Recommendations:
- Invest in logistics partnerships or infrastructure in states with long delivery times (RR, AP, AM) to reduce shipping durations and improve customer satisfaction.
- Refine the delivery estimation algorithm using historical data to provide more accurate delivery windows, which builds customer trust.
- Promote the fast delivery times in top-performing states as a key marketing advantage.
Final Recommendations
Final Insights
- The business is heavily reliant on the Southeastern region (SP, RJ, MG), which is both a strength (strong market fit) and a weakness (lack of diversification).
- Logistical efficiency is the key driver of success. States with lower freight costs and faster delivery times are the most successful markets.
- There is a clear seasonal peak around November, which is the most critical period for revenue generation and requires strategic planning.
- Customer spending habits vary geographically; remote customers make larger, less frequent purchases, likely to offset high shipping costs, while urban customers make smaller, more frequent purchases.
Strategic Recommendations
- Prioritize Northern Expansion: Develop a targeted strategy to reduce freight costs and delivery times to the northern states. This represents the largest untapped growth opportunity.
- Optimize Peak Season Performance: Create a dedicated task force to manage inventory, staffing, and marketing for the October-December period to maximize holiday sales.
- Data-Driven Logistics: Use the delivery time data to renegotiate contracts with carriers and refine the delivery estimation algorithm to improve customer trust and satisfaction.
- Develop a Customer Loyalty Program: Implement a tiered loyalty program that rewards repeat customers, especially in core markets like SP. Offer benefits like small shipping discounts or early access to sales to increase customer lifetime value and create a moat against competitors.